Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help?

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We investigate the impact of conflicts of interests on randomised controlled trials in a game-theoretic framework. A researcher seeks to persuade an evaluator that the causal effect of a treatment outweighs its cost, to justify acceptance. The researcher can use private information to manipulate the experiment in three alternative ways: (i) sampling subjects based on their treatment effect, (ii) assigning subjects to treatment based on their baseline outcome, or (iii) selectively reporting experimental outcomes. The resulting biases have different welfare implications: for sufficiently high acceptance cost, in our binary illustration the evaluator loses in cases (i) and (iii) but benefits in case (ii).

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftEconomic Journal
Vol/bind127
Udgave nummer605
Sider (fra-til)F266-F304
ISSN0013-0133
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 1 okt. 2017

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